'I'm always looking for the Hows and the Whys and the Whats,' said Muskrat, 'That is why I speak as I do. You've heard of Muskrat's Much-in-Little, of course?'
What do you want first, the good news or the bad news?
Yasi's path has changed slightly and is now expected to make landfall south of Cairns, but it has sped up, so will be a little earlier than expected. The good news is, it won't bring so much rain with it, not the metre (!), but more like 700mm.
Unfortunately the earlier arrival time coincides with the high tide, so the storm surge is expected to cover the centre of the city of Cairns, or more.
The airport is due to close soon, and the area's geriatric homes and the hospital have already been evacuated. There has been a mandatory evacuation order for those people who live in low-lying areas and areas of the city closest to the coast.
Tropical cyclone Yasi, which is approaching the Queensland coast has, at the time of writing this post, just been upgraded to the highest severity level: 5.
This is the biggest cyclone to hit Australia in at least three generations, and is much bigger than Cyclone Katrina that had such a devastating impact on New Orleans in 2005. (Max wind speed reached: 280 km/hr, minimum pressure reached: 904 hectopascals)
Yasi is expected to touch land at about local time 10 pm Wednesday night (6 am Wednesday morning GMT) near Cairns.
After the category 4 Cyclone Tracy in 1974, which virtually destroyed the city of Darwin, Cairns has improved its building codes. But this monster is much bigger than Tracy, and the authorities are encouraging evacuation, and already, depressingly, describing it as 'deadly'.
Some data.
At the moment (NZ time 8.30am Wednesday morning), and extrapolating the information from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology data it is as follows:
It is about 300 nautical miles east north-east of Cairns, 300 nautical miles northeast of Townsville, moving at about 16 knots (about 30 km/hr), has a centre pressure of 924 hectopascals, swell is 14 metres (42 feet) high with some waves 28 metres high (85 feet), maximum wind speed 115 knots (213 km/hr), and still increasing in severity. When it reaches the coast of Australia, it will carry around 100 cm (36 inches) of rain to dump.
For comparison, when it touched the New Orleans coast, Hurricane Katrina was only a category 3 and dropped about a third this amount - 35 cm/ 10 inches.
Cyclone Tracey was probably just a category 5 when it made landfall at Darwin, and was a small intense cyclone at only 50 km wide. But it was particularly devastating because the eye passed directly over Darwin.
Yasi is so huge it will have cyclone-level winds across about a 400 km wide area. 'It doesn't have to be choosy' (Brett Dutschke, meteorologist, Sydney Morning Herald article today 'Yasi looms large over tiny Tracy')
Recently Downunder had weather influenced by two tropical cyclones. You all probably know of the result - extensive flooding in Australia, and although ours locally was severe, yesterday and today the sun was shining and the roads and flooded paddocks in the North Island are rapidly drying out.
I went back to Whakatane yesterday to pick up my painting entry (didn't get anywhere in the competition - everyone say 'awww') and there were lollipop ladies and gangs of workers and machinery cleaning up at least 4 slips along that Matata coast road I posted about.
So, it was quite wild during my work week. I painted away in my little studio in the back garden. The rain whipped against the windows and the wind whistled around the corners but all was snug inside. Of course it wasn't cold - actually rather warm and humid, being a tropical weather-mass, and it seemed quite odd that it was. It didn't seem to go with the sounds, and the mesmerising sight of the high, brown swirling river below.
And there's more rough NZ weather forecast for later this week too. And another cyclone (Yasi) for Queensland, Australia.
